Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics in Post Resettlment Areas

Title: Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics in Post Resettlment Areas Using Cellular Automata Model: The Case of Gubalafto Wereda, Ethiopia
Authors: E. Lemma
Keywords: GIS, Remote Sensing, Land use land cover, Modeling, MCE, Resettlement:
Issue Date: August 2011
Abstract: Land is becoming a scarce resource due to immense agricultural and demographic pressure. In this study the land use land cover dynamics and modelling in post- resettlement areas of Gubalfto wereda have been under taken. The study aims to examine and assess if resettlement has brought any change in the land use land cover in the area and to predict the future land use land cover changes using cellular automata model. The result of the work shows a reduction by 2% in settlement and by 4% in agriculture between 1973 and 1986.While the periods between 1986 and 2005 shows an increase in agriculture by 62.5% and settlement by 46%. The trend and rate by which land use land cover has changed also shows that there are reduction in agriculture and settlement between 1973 and 1986 by 2.6km2 and 1.5km2 per year, respectively. This was because of the 1984/85 resettlement program large number of people leaves their settlement and agricultural land. Whereas, between 1986 and 2005 agriculture and 22settlement increased by 3.29km and 2.4km per year than the other classes. This change is because the settlers returned to their origin after resettlement program has passed. Therefore, agriculture and settlements are the main drivers of land use land cover change, which are in turn direct consequences of population growth. It was also observed that the predicted land use classes by 2020 may likely follow the same trend as that of 1986/2005, which means there is an increase in agriculture by 23.5% and settlement by 92% from 2005 but the forest coverage increase by 146%. The rate of change in 2020 will be increased in agriculture and settlement by 5.4km2 and by 5km2 per year and bush land will decrease by 10km per year. Hence, resettlement has a direct relation with land use land cover change and dynamics.
Presented at: The first Conference on Advances in Geomatics Research (2011)


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